Capital Misallocation

The Non-Ergodic Recovery

Watch the ensemble average and your trajectory diverge in real time.

The Peters coin flip. 200 agents each play a repeated multiplicative gamble: heads ×1.50, tails ×0.60. Expected value per flip: +5.0%. Time-average growth rate: −5.13%. Watch the gold line (ensemble mean) rise while the dashed ink line (median agent) falls. The oxblood path is you.

Agents200Flips100Heads×1.50Tails×0.60

Ensemble meanMedianYou